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The Raiffeisen Report : Economic estimates for 2011
The inflation reached the highest level in December and starting January it will go on a descending trend according to a report of Raiffeisen regarding the economic estimates of Romania in 2011.
The annual rate of inflation will drop from 8% in December to 6.7% in January and will fluctuate between 6.6% and 7% before June, so that starting July there will be a new substantial drop, a little under 5%. In the report it is almost certain that the inflation rate will drop this year, as a result of the positive effect of the factors of statistics namely the increase of VAT in 2010.
The uncertainties are connected to the speed of the disinflationist process. Raiffeisen anticipates that the annual rate of inflation will reach at the end of this year 4-4.5% while the expectations of the BNR of 3.4% are more optimistic. The monthly rate of inflation recorded recently are rather high, if they take into consideration the estimate of 3.4% BNR regarding the inflation at the end of this year, as well as the target of 3% plusminus a percentage point.
From this reason, the monthly rate should slow down, so that the target at the end of the year be observed. Among the factors which could keep the inflation rate at a high level, Raiffeisen mentions the increasing prices of food on foreign markets and the possible increase of some of the administered prices, such as the price of natural gas and thermal energy.
Raiffeisen shows the substantial reduction of uncertainties over the last weeks, after the parliament approved the laws included in the agreement with IMF, which is reflected in the decrease of ROBOR for six and 12 months, as well as the yield of governmental bonds.