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The European Commission: the population of the European Union  will grow until 2070 but the active population will drop


The active population of the  European Union will drop with 41 million people until 2070, even if the total population will grow at 520 million inhabitants, from 511as they were in 2016, shows a report of the Committee for Economic Policy (CPE) in the European Commission.

Until 2070, the number of the inactive population will overcome that of the active one by 1.2%. Thus,in 2070, the population aged over 65 will be 51.2% of the total. In other words, for each pensioner there will be two active people. At present, the report is 3.3 active people for each pensioner, show the authors of the report.

This evolution will lead to a drop to 9.6% of the work force (9.7%in the euro zone) for the category 24-64 years old.

‘As a whole, the public expenses of the member states will grow on average with 1.7% of GDP until 2070, in this category being included pensions,health, education, unemployment aid and long-term care such as home care’ the quoted document says.

In Romania, the aging process of the population will lead to the growth up to 3% of the public expenses. In the same situation, there are other nine member states among which Poland, Sweden, Slovakia or Portugal.

According to the report, the expenses will surpass3% of the GDP in The Netherlands, Austria, the Czech Republic or Germany but they will drop in Greece, France, Italy or Spain.

The health costs will grow during the next 22 years, with 2.1% on average. Between 2040- 2070 they will drop gradually until they get to the present level.

The expenses for pensions will drop, on the one hand due to the increase of the retirement age and on the other hand due to the reform of the pensions system. There is also included a drop of 10.6% of the expenses with the state-run pensions and an increase of 10.5% of the private ones.

The authors of the report consider that a new increase of the retirement age is expected.

The study was made taking into consideration the structure of the population, the fertility rates, the migration rate and the life expectancy.