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Prognosis : ’09 Inflation At 4.3%

Romania’s inflation is estimated at 4.3% at the end of 2009, slightly below the central bank's 4.5% upper limit target, and is seen falling to 3.5% next year, according to the National Prognosis Committee CNP's preliminary autumn forecast. The committee estimates the average annual inflation at 5.5% this year, slightly below the 5.8% it predicted in its spring prognosis. Romanian consumer price index fell in August by 0.19% on the month, compared with a 0.07% in July, while the annual inflation rate fell for the sixth month in a row, from 5.06% to 4.96%, according to the National Statistics Institute.
Romania's central bank set up a 3.5% inflation target for 2009, with one percentage point variation band, and estimates the annual inflation rate will be at 4.3% in December. The International Monetary Fund estimates that this year's inflation will be at 4.3%, below the agreed target established in the EUR13 billion stand-by agreement, back in March.
Unemployment rate to climb to 7.6 pct in 2009

The unemployment rate is to climb in 2009 to 7.6 percent from 4.4 percent in 2008 and the number of jobless is to reach 685,000 compared to 403,400 last year, according to the autumn preliminary projection released by the National Prognosis Commission (CNP). The unemployment rate calculated according to the International Labor Bureau (BIM) is estimated at 8.4 percent from 5.8 percent in 2008, and the number of BIM unemployed (computed based on AMIGO statistics) is to amount at 840,000 compared to 575,000 in 2008.

The average number of employees in 2009 stood at 4.73 million, down by 6.3 percent from 2008 (5.046 million) and the net average wage in 2009 stood at 1,350 lei, up 3.1 percent from last year. According to CNP, the unemployment rate is to drop by 1.4 percentage points in 2010, to 6.2 percent and the number of the unemployed will be cut to 550,000.August unemployment rate accounted for 6.6 percent compared to 6.3 percent in July 2009 and 3.8 percent in the similar month of 2008. According to the National employment agency - ANOFM, the total number of unemployed registered with the county employment agencies stood at 601,673, of whom 265,945 women.
Prognosis Revises Down ‘09 GDP Growth To -7.7%
National Prognosis Commission (CNP) revised down its forecast on the country’s economic growth for 2009 to minus 7.7%, from minus 4% it estimated in spring. CNP's prognosis is still above the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, which sees Romania's gross domestic product down 8%-8.5% in 2009. According to the committee's preliminary autumn prognosis, Romania's economy will return to growth in next year's third quarter, when the GDP is projected to rise 0.8% compared with the third quarter of 2009.

For the whole of 2010, CNP estimates a 0.5% GDP growth, compared with a 0.1% hike predicted in spring. In 2011, Romania's GDP is seen up 2.4% on the year.CNP estimates the peak of the recession in 2009. Thus, third quarter GDP will be down 8.5% compared with the same period of 2008, and down 1% compared with this year's second quarter.In the second quarter, Romania's GDP shrank by a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in the compared with the previous quarter. In unadjusted data, GDP fell 8.7% on the year in the second quarter, according to the National Statistics institute data.

In the last three months of 2009, the economy will contract by 7% compared with the similar period a year earlier, and by 0.8% compared with the previous quarter, according to the preliminary autumn prognosis.The first quarter-to-quarter growth is seen for 2010's second quarter, when the GDP is seen up 1% from the January-March period, though it will still be down compared with the second quarter of 2009.
Current account deficit to drop to 4.6 pct of GDP in 2009
Romania's current account deficit is to drop in 2009 to 4.6 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to 12.3 percent in 2008, according the the preliminary autumn outlook of the National Prognosis Commission (CNP).In terms of volume, the current account deficit is to decline from 16.897 billion euros in 2008 to 5.38 billion euros in 2009.

For 2010, the current account deficit is estimated to account for 4.8 percent of the GDP or 6.02 billion euros, in 2011 - 4.7 percent of the GDP or 6.35 billion euros and in 2014 it is estimated at 4.2 percent of the GDP or 7.65 billion euros.According to CNP, the trade balance deficit is to be adjusted in 2009 to 8.6 billion euros (FOB exports - CIF imports) as against 22.7 billion euros in 2008.FOB exports are estimated to drop in 2009 by 15 percent and CIF imports to go down by 34 percent.
Average wage gain to reach at 1,922 lei in 2010
The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) in its preliminary autumn forecast said that the average gross monthly gain in Romania will increase by 3.9 percent in 2010, compared with 2009, up to 1,922 lei.
The bonuses also will be more substantial, to reach 2,230 lei in 2014 and 2,390 lei in 2015.With regards to the average net monthly gain, the CNP estimated an increase from 1,350 lei in 2009 up to 1,400 in 2010 and up to 1,464 lei in 2011. The most important estimated growth, of 7 percent, will come in 2014 (against 2013), when the average net monthly gain to reach 1,734 lei.

While CNP appreciated that, on the level of the entire year 2009, the average net monthly wage will stand at 1,350 lei, the most recent data released by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) showed that, in July, the average net nominal wage per month stood at 1,390 lei.The highest value in terms of average net monthly nominal wage was recorded in the air transportation field (3,400 lei), with the lowest level having been seen in the wood processing industry (807 lei).

According to the data provided by the INS, in July 2009, in most of the economic fields, the levels of the average net monthly gain saw a slight decrease compared with June 2009, as following the granting of rights in kind and money from the wage fund, occasional bonuses and higher production.



Tuesday, September 29, 2009