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Economist Intelligence Unit: Romania’s economy will recover slowly in 2011
Romanian economy is expected to grow only modestly in 2011, after a decline of 2% envisaged for 2010, while tough austerity measures are bound to face strong social opposition and could create instability, the Economist Intelligence Unit said in its latest global forecast Tuesday.The Balkan countries, a region that includes Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Serbia, are also exposed to fallout from Greece's problems because of investment, trade, remittance and banking links, the EIU noted. For Bulgaria, EIU estimates that after a marginal decline of the economy, in 2011 it will slowly recover. The capacity to react to the crisis was reduced by the strict exchange of leva to the euro and the necessity to maintain a stricter budgetary policy.
EIU anticipates a 3% economic growth for newly EU members like Romania, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and a 3.4% growth in 2012. Inflation will be 3.4% in 2011 and 2.7 in 2012.
It said the EU newcomers are expected to post growth of 2.8% in 2011 and of 3.4% in 2012. Inflation is seen at 3.4% this year and at 2.6% next year.In the EU bloc, average economic growth is estimated at 1.6% for both 2011 and 2012.The EIU revised upward its forecast for global economic growth to 4% in 2011, from 3.8% previously.