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BNR : private consumption is estimated to be the main factor for economic growth in 2021-2022

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The economy will reach, probably, a considerably higher dynamics this year than the previously estimated one, mainly due to the evolution in Q1 and in 2022 the advance will be robust, say  the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Board of BNR of 6th August.Private consumption is estimated to be the main factor of economic growth of 2021-2022, the BNR leadership says, according to which a source of uncertainties is given by the capacity of certain businesses to keep viable after the cessation of governmental support programmes.

 

 ‘When referring to the future cyclic position of the economy, the members of the Board mentioned the fact that the economy will reach a considerably higher dynamics this year than the estimated one – mainly due to the evolution in Q1 – and in 2022, although visibly  slowing down – the advance will keep robutst, as some quarterly rhythms are marginally slowing down as compared to the previous estimate, comparable to those of the pre-pandemics years. The evolution means a slower growth of the demand excess aggregated for the horizon of the prognosis, but on a slightly higher path than the estimated one in May, even in the conditions of a dynamics of GDP potentially revised, again, consistently upwards’ the minutes show.

 

At the same time, private consumption is estimated to be the main factor in the economic growth of 2021 – 2022, with higher dynamics this year than the one estimated in May, due, mainly to the carry-over statistics effect and the one generated by the short term manifestation of the consumption demand previously repressed.

 

Adjusted with these effects, the anticipated growth rhythm of private consumption on the horizon of the prognosis is inferior to the average of the period 2016 – 2019, said the members of the Board.

 

( The whole text of the minutes will be published in our Financial Bulletin on Monday, 23rd August).

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